Long-Term Governance and Global Stability

As China is concluding the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025), its 15th Plan (2026-2030) is in the pipeline. This system of sequential five-year plans represents one of the most sustained and successful modernization strategies in modern history. For the international community, China’s planning mechanism makes the country a predictable, long-term partner in addressing global challenges – from climate change to technological innovation.

Unlike some nations where political shifts often lead to erratic policy changes, China’s institutionalized planning process ensures continuity, rationality, and a steady supply of global public goods. With nearly 17 percent of the world’s population, China’s stability is not merely a domestic achievement but a global asset.

China’s five-year planning system began in 1953, focusing initially on heavy industrialization. Over the decades, it has evolved from rigid central planning to a more flexible, indicative system that incorporates market mechanisms and global trends. The most recent plans have emphasized technological self-reliance, social welfare, and sustainable development.

Significantly, China’s sustained rise as a major developing country and a global leader in fields like AI, robotics, outer space, and cyberspace, largely driven by its sequential five-year plans, appears to validate the assessment of Lee Kwan Yew, Singapore’s former prime minister and long regarded as one of the most astute foreign observers of China. He remarked, “It is not possible to pretend that this is just another big player. This is the biggest player in the history of the world.” When he made this statement in 1993, few in the West took it seriously. By 2012, China had become the largest trading partner for 124 countries, compared to 76 for the U.S. This represented a significant shift in global trade dynamics, as in 2006, the U.S. was the larger trading partner for 127 countries while China was for just 70.

By 2017, as China advanced under its 13th Five-Year Plan (2016–2020), the depth of Lee’s insight became unmistakably clear. This plan launched the “Made in China 2025” initiative, emphasizing indigenous innovation and vigorously promoting the goal of building a “moderately prosperous society.”

By 2024, China had become the world’s largest trading partner for 145 economies, with 112 countries trading more than twice as much with China as with the U.S., representing another leap by China, according to “China versus America on global trade,” a study published by Roland Rajah and Ahmed Albayrak at the Australian Lowy Institute in January.

These accomplishments should be understood not merely in economic terms, but also as a testament to the efficacy of China’s governance and a direct result of its strategic national plans.

The 14th Five-Year Plan prioritized innovation-driven growth, resulting in breakthroughs like the Chang’e-6 lunar mission, which retrieved samples from the far side of the moon in 2024. Domestically, technologies such as open-source AI platform DeepSeek-R1 and advanced robotics are being deployed to improve elder care and public transportation.

China’s governance model is characterized by long-term goal-setting, such as the “Two Centenary Goals”: building a “moderately prosperous society” by 2021 and a “modern socialist country in all respects” by 2049. These objectives are broken down into actionable five-year plans with specific metrics and accountability mechanisms.

A distinctive feature of China’s planning process is its emphasis on public participation. Since 2020, the government has solicited input online for each five-year plan. For example, the 14th plan incorporated suggestions such as promoting mutual-aid elderly care services, reflecting a responsive and people-oriented approach.

From my perspective, having lived in China for almost half a decade and maintained close engagement with the country since the 80’s, the deeply ingrained people-oriented philosophy is fundamental to the ethos of the Community Party of China (CPC) and everyday practice. It comes as no surprise that this principle is also embodied in the country’s core governance structure. Every time a new five-year plan is drafted, I am reminded of the main entrance to Zhongnanhai in central Beijing – where the Central Committee of the CPC and the State Council are located – and the traditional screen wall inscribed with a slogan in Chinese, “为人民服务”, meaning “serve the people.”

It is no accident that Chinese cities like Beijing and Shanghai now boast life expectancies on par with or exceeding those of major U.S. cities. The “serve the people” motto also illustrates why cutting-edge technologies such as robotics are being deployed in China to serve the elderly and enhance public transportation, rather than being limited to private use.

Meanwhile, the U.S., which for decades has advocated its values and policies to China, is now issuing contradictory statements, adopting inconsistent measures, and making threats across various domains. This includes implementing significant cuts to social welfare, healthcare, education, and scientific research – sectors that were once globally admired in the post-World War II era.

In contrast, China’s inaugural Five-Year plan in 1953 laid the groundwork for industrialization by establishing the country’s first major steel and automobile plants. The 13th (2016-2020) plan culminated in the completion of the world’s largest high-speed rail network. Now, the 14th (2021-2025) and upcoming 15th (2026-2030) plans reinforce a long-term commitment to policy continuity, prioritizing high investment in research and development.

China’s rise as a global power is not solely economic; it is also a validation of its governance model. The European Union, comprising 27 diverse nations, should learn something from China’s planning system, not as a template to be copied, but as a unique approach worthy of study and respect.

China’s five-year plans are more than economic documents; they are expressions of a civilizational state leveraging its historical perspective and scale to achieve sustained progress.

The world can no longer afford to ignore or misunderstand China’s development model. It should engage with it constructively, learning where possible, and collaborating where necessary. This is important and urgent indeed.

Augusto Soto is director of the Spain-based Dialogue with China Project and former global expert in the United Nations Alliance of Civilizations.